Notes1 This article relies on the Cuba Standard Economic Trend Index (CSETI) to analyze Cuba’s GDP growth in 2015 and develop projections for 2016. Growth increased from 1% in 2014 to 4.3% in 2015, but it is expected to drop to approximately zero in 2016 and into negative territory in 2017—all below the official target […]
The Geographic Structure of Cuban Imports and Over-Invoicing
The Geographic Structure of Cuban Imports and the Incidence of Over-Invoicing. Ernesto Hernandez-Cata This note examines the relation between Cuban imports of goods from major trading partners as reported by Cuba’s statistical agency, and exports of goods to Cuba as reported by her partners. At first sight, these numbers should be equal—two faces of the […]
How Will the End of the Accord with Venezuela Affect the Cuban Economy?
How will the end of the Accord with Venezuela affect the Cuban Economy? Ernesto Hernández-Catá[1] August 2016 Since the beginning of this century Cuba has benefited considerably from an arrangement with Venezuela, whereby Cuba receives oil in exchange for the services of doctors and other professionals. The oil supplied by Venezuela satisfies a […]
Cuba: Is it a Demographic Revolution or a Blip?
During the first 12 years of the XXI century demographic and labor statistics in Cuba could be comfortably summarized as follows: the population is stagnant; there is a fairly constant flow of outward migration; the population of working age is rising very slowly and is beginning to fall. But this scenario of basic stagnation appeared […]
Preparing for a Full Restoration of Economic Relations between Cuba and the United States
The actions announced by the governments of Cuba and the United States on December 17, 2014 will have a limited immediate impact on the Cuban economy. More important consequences will need to await the repeal of the Helms-Burton Act (H-B) by the U.S. Congress. I don’t know when that will happen, but the recent agreement […]
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