This paper presents an assessment of economic implications of movement towards normal relations between Cuba and the United States. It gauges the likely impact of the new measures announced by Obama on December 2014. It then considers economic consequences in a longer time horizon given possible changes in U.S. laws and resolution of major legal […]
Cuba Coping With Venezuela Quagmire
Cuba is avoiding severe economic damage from the economic turmoil in its close ally Venezuela. Officials report an increase in annualized real GDP of 4.7% in the first half of 2015 after meager expansion of 1.3% in the previous year.[1] The expansion is broadly based across productive sectors particularly industry, agriculture and commerce. This at […]
Cuba – US Reconciliation and Limited Reforms
It is hardly a secret that the economy of Cuba is in a sorry state. Visits to Cuba provide testimony as to widespread poverty, food and housing shortages and the marked decay of buildings, infrastructure and machinery. Official GDP per capita of $6800 for 2013 places Cuba below the $8700 average of the 12 Latin […]
Cuba’s Feeble International Liquidity
Cuba’s international liquidity at the end of 2014 remained precarious as shown by statistics from the Bank for International Settlements. The 45% alleged cutback since September 2014 of oil shipments from Venezuela estimated by Barclays Bank would add considerable pressure to the balance of payments, but this action is unconfirmed by independent sources and officials […]
Economic Impact of the New Cuba Measures
This post takes an initial look at economic implications of the new measures announced by President Obama on December 17, 2014. The author estimates the one-year positive impact of the measures at 0.5% to 0.6% of Cuba’s GDP with the second year impact somewhat higher because of multiplier effects.[1] The impact although significant will by […]