Cuba’s Macroeconomic Policy’s Aggressive Shift towards Expansion Ernesto Hernández-Catá February 2018   Macroeconomic policies I Cuba were generally restrained during most of the period from 1994 to 2012. For the past several years, however, these policies have turned aggressively toward expansion. Over the period 2013 to 2016 the budget deficit ballooned, government expenditure increased sharply, […]

UNIFYING THE CUBAN PESO: TENTATIVE NUMBERS[i]   Luis R. Luis   SUMMARY  Exchange rate and currency unification is a high priority.  Estimates from the national income accounts place the average managed rate at about 3 Cuban pesos per dollar in 2012-2016.  Unification is made difficult by the feeble international reserve position of Cuba with assets […]

On the Recent Decline in Cuba’s Participation Rate Ernesto Hernández-Catá     This article seeks to explain the recent decline in Cuba’s participation rate with particular attention to the role of cyclical factors, demographic conditions, and the government’s labor market policies.   The ups and downs of the participation rate. Cyclical explanations and recent mysteries. […]

Cuba’s External Liquidity Crisis Takes Surprising Turns Luis R. Luis   Cuba is being pressed by external liquidity shortages for a number of years, the consequence of deteriorating production and export capacity.  Stagnant or falling farm output is a prime driver of consumption imports.  Receipts on the current account of the balance of payments are […]

Cuba’s Foreign Sector: Data for 2015 are (finally) available Ernesto Hernandez-Cata With an extraordinarily long delay, even by Cuba’s unusually foot-dragging standards, the National Office of Statistics and Information (ONEI) has finally released its complete set of statistics for the year 2015.[1] This comes a bit late to help the analyst interested in the short […]