Exchange Rate Expectations under a Fixed Exchange Rate Regime. An Imaginary Application to the Case of the Cuban Peso.   Ernesto Hernández-Catá June 2021   In a recent paper, Luis (2021a) provided a rigorous analysis of Cuba’s exchange rate system. His model, based on portfolio selection theory, features the three currencies that until recently circulated […]

INFLATION IN CUBA 2010-2021* Luis R. Luis   The Cuban economy has experienced moderate inflation in recent years.  The only recent official statistic is the household consumption deflator in the national income accounts of the Oficina Nacional de Estadística e Información which shows an average increase of 3.1% per year in 2010-2019 (ONEI 2016, 2020). […]

Monetary Bang and Inflation after the January 2021 Devaluation of the Cuban Peso Luis R. Luis   The Cuban government set January 1st 2021 as day zero when the convertible peso or CUC will merge into the CUP or Cuban peso which will devalue from 1 per dollar to a new rate of 24 per […]

CUBA: DOLLAR CRUNCH, DOLLARIZATION AND DEVALUATION Luis R. Luis   Cuba faces an acute balance of payments crisis aggravated  by the COVID 19 pandemic.  The balance of payments crisis in turn is reflected in severe shortages of foodstuffs, medicines and other essential goods.  So far measures taken to deal with the crisis are largely fiscal […]

CUBA’S UNCERTAIN REVENUES FROM MEDICAL EXPORTS Luis R. Luis   It is well known that exports of medical and other professional services are Cuba’s largest source of export income, surpassing tourism and outstripping merchandise exports. It is also a controversial income source as doctors are treated as mere appendages of the Cuban state deprived of […]