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The Association for the Study
of the Cuban Economy-ASCE

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Roger Betancourt

(1943 - 2024)  

Observations from a Visit to Havana

Roberto Orro, January 7, 2024.  

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The Association for the Study of the Cuban Economy (ASCE) is a non-profit non-political organization founded in 1990. Our mission is to study the structure and operation of the Cuban economy, and the processes of transition to a market economy in Cuba; and to promote scholarship, research, and publications by its members.

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From a population of 11 million to
little more than 8.5 million: The real
toll of Cuba’s migratory crisis

Roberto Orro - 72324
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- Roberto Orro, July 23, 2024.     

According to numbers compiled by Cuban economist and demographer Juan Carlos Albizu-Campos, the islandā€™s population fell by 18% between 2022 and 2023. The streets in Cuba look empty. Dozens of residents in every neighborhood have shut the door to their homes for the last time. Long lines in the Havana airport to boardĀ a flight to NicaraguaĀ grow by the day. Some time ago, there was talk of a stampede, a collective fever to escape, to avoid being the last witness of a countryā€™s collapse. Nearly three years ago, it was said that Cuba was seeing the biggest migratory wave in its history, and though authorities have not released official data regarding the current population, a new study revealsĀ the real tollĀ of the islandā€™s dramatic exodus. ā€œI have never seen so many people emigrating as I am right now,ā€ says 43-year-old Havana resident Valia RodrĆ­guez. ā€œOf course, any Cuban would love to go. I would, for example. If I had the means, I would go, because in this country, with this government, one canā€™t live. And Iā€™ll tell you something else, if I hadnā€™t recently given birth, I would have left, because theĀ situation is unsustainable.ā€ Although itā€™s clear that emigration in Cuba has taken off since 2021, official reports and government data describe a current population of just over 11 million who still live in the country. But that number is a figure from the past. Cuban economist and demographer Juan Carlos Albizu-Campos has announced that between 2022 and 2023, the islandā€™s population fell by 18%, meaning that in reality, there are 8.62 million Cubans living there today. In an interview with EL PAƍS, Albizu-Campos, a researcher from the Christian Center of Reflection and Dialogue who worked for 30 years at the Center for Demographic Studies and later, at the Center for Studies of the Cuban Economy, said that, given the lack of up-to-date official numbers, he used the electoral roll from the February 13, 2013 elections, which registers people aged 16 and over, and is based on the last census conducted in the country in 2012. The demographer explained that, although censuses are normally carried out every 10 years, the next one will not take place on the island until 2025 due to the current crisis, a similar delay to that which took place during Cubaā€™s Special Period following theĀ fall of the Soviet Union, which caused the census to be held after 20 years, in 2012. To count the members of the population who are zero to 15 years old, the researcher used data from Cubaā€™s Anuario EstadĆ­stico (Statistical Yearbook). Albizu-Campos places the beginning of todayā€™s exodus at the beginning of October 2021, a peak of the current migratory wave, when the number of Cubans reported at the U.S.-Mexico border multiplied. His study also references the 738,680 Cubans who arrived in the United States between October 2021 and April 2024 after receiving immigrant visas, according to figures from U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP). ā€œThat doesnā€™t mean that before, people werenā€™t leaving,ā€ says Albizu-Campos. ā€œBut, beginning in October 2021, the numbers start to be very large in relation to what was happening.ā€ Between 2021 and now, the Cuban migratory exodus has far exceeded previous mass departures, such as El Mariel in 1980 (125,000), the Balseros Crisis in 1994 (34,500) and Boca de Camarioca in 1965 (about 5,000). What happened in 2021 to convince thousands of Cubans to start leaving their country en masse? An accumulation ofĀ chaos and bad decisions. The economy had been moving towards collapse since 2019, there were the economic sanctions of the Trump administration, economic and political measures that sank the country even further,Ā a pandemicĀ that forced the closure of borders worldwide and directly affected Cubaā€™s fundamental industry, tourism, and the growing lack of medicine and collapse of the health system. In general, there was an environment of instability and political fracture that in 2021, led to the largest citizen protest that Cuban had seenĀ since 1959. The situation accelerated many Cubansā€™ departure, suggesting that things would not be getting any better in the near future. Emigration now seems to be the only source of hope to many Cubans, who are selling everything, right down to their houses, to be able to pay for a one-way ticket. Their decisions have added up to a migratory wave that, between 2022 and 2023 alone, according to Albizu-Campos, accounted for the departure of 1.79 million people from the country. Confirmation of Cubaā€™s population decline has caused its fair share of reverberations. A few days after Albizu-Camposā€™ alarming data was published, the government announced that, though a new census would be necessary to know exact numbers, ā€œthe population of Cuba is currently less than 10 million inhabitants and will continue to decrease.ā€ The Havana, Cienfuegos and Mayabeque provinces have seen the greatest losses in population, a phenomenon that, as is acknowledged by the government itself, will have repercussions on ā€œplans, programs, projects in the demographic, economic, social and environmental fields.ā€ If numbers continue to trend in the same direction ā€” influenced by a variety of factors ā€” Cubaā€™s population could fall below six million by the year 2100, according to projections from a recent UN report. The many destinations of the Cuban emigrant In 2013,Ā under RaĆŗl Castro, Cubans were not only once again allowed to stay in hotels and sell their privately-owned homes, but also saw the possibilities for going abroad expand. That yearā€™s immigration reform annulled the so-called ā€œwhite cardā€ and ā€œinvitation letter,ā€ meaning that Cubans could start to travel with just their passport and a visa approval from their destination country. ā€œWhat is happening now is that Cuba is seeing migrants leave through a variety of doors. Before the 2013 immigration reform, emigration was very controlled. When those limitations were lifted, suddenly the population discovered that there were many exits,ā€ says Albizu-Campos. Since 2008, thousands of Cubans have left for Ecuador after Rafael Correaā€™s administration eliminated visa requirements for the islandā€™s citizens. The South American country became the escape route for many, who would subsequently travel up Central America to the United States. Today, the migratory path starts in Nicaragua. A report from U.S. think tank Inter-American Dialogue found that on average, 50 charter flights departed from Havana to Managua every month between January and October 2023, transporting some 100,000 people who would later begin their journey north. The latest CBP figures put the number of Cubans who arrived in the United States legally in 2024 through June, via all border crossings, at 106,757. Three months away from the end of the fiscal year (which takes place in September), 180,925 Cubans have entered the United States using different routes, including visas, humanitarian parole or irregular arrivals via the southern border or by navigating the Florida Straits. According to the UN, Cubans currently live in 140 countries around the world. The United States is at the top of this list, followed by Spain, Italy, Mexico and Canada. Albizu-Campus explains that, although the United States is the final destination in many cases, itā€™s very difficult to arrive there directly and that thousands of Cubans choose other countries as their primary destination. According to the Mexican Commission for Refugee Aid (COMAR), more than 8,800 Cubans applied for refuge in Mexico between January and June of this year. In 2023, some 4,000 Cubans applied for help from the government of Uruguay, according to the countryā€™s Ministry of Social Development. On its end, the Biden administration has taken a series of steps to slow irregular migration, widely granting humanitarian parole to Cubans beginning last year. But it has also imposed restrictive measures on the granting of asylum at the border andĀ has collaborated with the Panamanian governmentĀ to block crossings in the DariĆ©n Gap. But Cubans have continued to find ways out of their countryā€™s current crisis. So alarming is the situation that a few months ago, a Havana authority publicly recognized that the country is experiencing its largest exodus of all time. Deputy director general for the United States at the Cuban Foreign Ministry, Johana Tablada de la Torre, blamed Washington D.C. for the ā€œunprecedented increase in the current migratory flow,ā€ which she called ā€œdisproportionateā€ at a press conference. ā€œIt is, in essence, the largest migratory wave in Cubaā€™s history,ā€ she said. In a recent interview with AP, First Colonel Mario MĆ©ndez Mayedo, head of the Directorate of Identification, Immigration and Foreignersā€™ Affairs, say that there are currently three million Cubans living in foreign countries. Women, at the head of the Cuban exodus But emigration is not the only worrisome indicator when it comes to Cuban demographics. Albizu-Campos warns that there also exists a ā€œnegative balance of natural growthā€ in a country where, in 2022 and 2023, there were more deaths than births. Even the National Office of Statistics and Information (ONEI) has recognized that an ā€œaccelerated demographic agingā€ is taking place among 22.3% of its total population, admitting that ā€œsince 1977, population replacement has not been achieved.ā€ The demographer also says that, in addition to the migratory balance, there is a ā€œdownward trendā€ in the population due to ā€œlow fertility, the negative balance between birth and death rates.ā€ The government estimates that in 2024, births will number less than 80,000, the lowest since 1959. According to Albizu-Campos, a general downward trend of birth rates has been taking place on the island since 2019. ā€œThere is a combination of the birth rate slowing and the decreasing number of mothers who are giving birth,ā€ he says. ā€œThe birth rate in Cuba is the result of a process called transition from fertility. There were changes to womenā€™s status, above all after 1959, through which women became the hub of transformation and changes that began to take place,ā€ he says. Women are also migrating more. According to UN figures, 133 women leave the country for every 100 men, meaning that 56% of migrants are women. ā€œThere is a pattern that when emigration is irregular, men dominate. When you look at the 1994 Balseros crisis, that was mainly men. What is happening today is that Cuba is producing migrants who are leaving regularly through various exit points. This kind of migration is much safer for women and many mothers are leaving. Women of reproductive age leave, and that affects the number of births,ā€ says Albizu-Campos. The demographer emphasizes that, given that 77% of people who are emigrating are between 15 and 59 years old, ā€œweā€™re seeing a pattern of grandparents left alone with children.ā€ Itā€™s a phenomenon called ā€œPeter Pan in reverse,ā€ as opposed to 1959ā€²s so-called Operation Peter Pan, when 14,000 children arrived in the United States, sent by their parents under the promise of later reunion, indicative of their fear of what could take place in the wake of the Cuban Revolution. ā€œYoung parents tend to emigrate on their own, because they follow complex migratory paths,ā€ Albizu-Campos says. ā€œBefore, people who wanted to emigrate sent their children ahead of them. Now itā€™s the opposite, people emigrate and leave their child behind.ā€

Observations from a Visit to Havana
-
Roberto Orro, January 7, 2024.     

I have recently returned from a seven-day trip to Cuba, and I want to share with you my main observations and impressions. I will focus on facts, so you can draw your own conclusions. Ā  Ā  Regarding the famous Mipymes, they have undoubtedly filled a gap in the retail network. Now you can buy many food products that were missing last year, of course, at astronomical prices that are unaffordable for many Cubans. In general, the nutritional situation is better than in the early 90s when many Cubans were close to total starvation, but it is getting worse and worse. The rationing system is phasing out, but the market is still far from compensating for the critical shortage of rationed products like rice, beans, and sugar. Ā  Ā  Many questions remain on how Mipymes get the ā€œdivisasā€ (foreign exchange) that they need. Private restaurants accept payments in US dollars and Cuban pesos. Ā The only way for Cubans to buy US dollars is in the informal market. Interestingly, I encountered a mechanic who preferred payment in Cuban pesos, proof that in some circles the national currency has made strides. Importers, which now are another group veiled in secrecy, only accept foreign exchange. Thus, many Cubans believe that some top officials are involved (as owners) in the Mipymes business. Anyway, many dots are unconnected yet in this unofficial chain of import-distribution-sales. Ā  Ā  The link between inflation and the public deficit is straightforward. The government pays most salaries, but public revenue has fallen. I donā€™t believe that salaries will keep up with such insane prices for very long, and with the government retail network in retreat, I do not anticipate a correction in the market exchange rate, US dollar/CUP. In fact, I heard that GAESAā€™s retail sales have dramatically fallen, which appears to have been caused by the demise of Lopez Callejas and the migration of government officials to private businesses. Ā  Cuban infrastructure is in its worst condition ever, with no solution in sight. Transportation is a headache. Streets resemble a lunar landscape. Garbage collection is awful, and garbage can be seen pouring out of dumpsters onto sidewalks and streets. The shortage of medical supplies and medicines is critical.Ā  Education and healthcare now top the list of problems. Ā  Ā  Public transportation barely exists, but now you can see luxury private cars in Cuba. I even saw a Tesla. How do these luxury cars get into the country? It is somewhat of a mystery, and there are many rumors about high-ranking officials running the car-import business. Ā  Ā  Access to the internet, WhatsApp and mobile phones has significantly increased. Now, Cubans wake up and check Cibercuba every morning. The government has completely lost its ideological grip, but this change has not translated yet into an effective force of political pressure. This time I didnā€™t see anyone giving the traditional talks (teques y muelas) on the Revolutionā€™s achievements and benefits. Nobody is guarded when criticizing the government. Of course, public announcements of further increases in gasoline, power, and other prices have stirred a great deal of anxiety and irritation in the population. Ā  Ā  Ā  The decline in the number of tourists in Havana is noticeable--nothing like what I saw in 2016 when the streets were filled with vintage cars driving tourists throughout the city. A taxi driver told me that security conditions have also deteriorated, and some tourists have been assaulted and robbed in Old Havana. Again, that is what I heard. Ā  Ā  Despite this dire picture, a small group of people are enjoying a high standard of living. Social and racial inequality, whose elimination was supposed to be one of the main goals of the Revolution, is now a critical problem (shameful and embarrassing). You donā€™t need any statistics to conclude that the small and privileged group consists mostly of well-connected white people, with easy access to foreign exchange; while the majority of Cubans, (mostly mestizo and black people) are hopelessly trapped in poverty. Ā  Ā  To top it all off, the torrent of people (mostly working age and their children) leaving the island continues unabated. At this pace, only seniors will remain in Cuba for a few years. Well, I leave you to draw your own conclusions. Nevertheless, it seems to me that Cuba faces a very uncertain future, with a catastrophic scenario not outside the realm of possibility.

Roger Betancourt
1943 - 2024.     

(Roger Betancourt unexpectedly passed away on April 9 of this year. The historian James Flexner referred to George Washington as America’s “Indispensable Man”. For ASCE Roger was our indispensable man. Without him there would have been no ASCE, many of us would not have become involved in researching Cuba, and I certainly would not be its current president. Below is a tribute to Roger by Luis Luis, his dear friend and long-time ASCE member.  Ģ¶  Luis Locay)

It was with deep sadness that I learned of the passing on April 9 of Roger, a dear friend of nearly seven decades.Ā  We shared friendship, family gatherings, social outings, travels and professional activities.Ā  He was foremost a warm family man with a loving family and marriage of 57 years to Alicia. Roger had a keen interest in the wellbeing of others and boosting endeavors he favored. We first met in Havana at our beloved Colegio de La Salle in 1956 when we started bachillerato, the five-year high school program. I remember quiet and studious Roger seating to my right in our home room in our fourth-year, the last year we completed as the school was closed and the Christian Brothers exiled by the communist regime.Ā  After June 1960 we did not meet again until 1969 as Roger, already married to Alicia and having completed his PhD, joined the economics faculty at the University of Maryland and I began teaching economics at the U.S. Naval Academy in Annapolis.Ā  We forged personal and family bonds and shared professional activities, especially faculty seminars. Roger worked assiduously at Maryland, earning the respect of his peers and students.Ā  He published many articles and seminal books on capital utilization, the economics of retail and distribution and economic development. Much of his work was in applied microeconomics and econometrics and later in his career he became interested in the new institutional economics applied to economic development issues. He was very proud of his work as a dissertation advisor and mentor for graduate students.Ā  He advised dozens of students, propelling their careers and earning lifelong gratitude and friendship.Ā  He had world-wide connections from his students and from research and teaching in far-ranging places such as Sri Lanka and Argentina.Ā  He taught as a vising professor at universities in France, Spain and Turkey among others.Ā  We met during Rogerā€™s visits at INSEAD in Fontainebleau. I warmly recall family beach vacations with Roger and family in Maryland where he regularly beat me at tennis, and their visit to our house in England. Ā  ASCE was Rogerā€™s special endeavor of the last three decades. He was a driving force in the creation and organization of ASCE.Ā  He worked with Cuban-American economists and other professionals mainly in the Washington DC area to design and launch an organization aiming at the study of the Cuban economy in a broad sense and the process of transition to a democratic market economy.Ā  ASCE was incorporated in the State of Maryland in August 1990.Ā  The agreement establishing ASCE was signed at Rogerā€™s house, and he became its first President. With help from friends, Roger had come up with the articles of incorporation. He brought up the idea of setting up a professional organization rather than just a think tank or purely research outfit.Ā  He was concerned that the new association would be inclusive regarding research and analysis as well as membership with a diverse professional background.Ā  To his credit Roger was one of the few academic economists involved in the foundation of ASCE.Ā  Washington is after all a city of economists who mostly work for governmental and international offices and agencies. In December 1990 ASCE, as proposed by Roger, was affiliated with the Allied Social Science Associations operating under the aegis of the American Economic Association.Ā  This allowed ASCE to have a session during the annual meetings of the AEA.Ā  Roger attended these meetings usually as presenter or commentator.Ā  Behind the scenes he helped recruit participants and searched for interesting papers to be presented.Ā  He was actively involved in persuading the AEA to maintain ASCEā€™s session at the annual meetings. During the more than the three decadesā€™ life of ASCE Roger was crucial in stimulating leadership of the association and was in its nominating committee which initiated the election process for the executive board and president.Ā  Rogerā€™s charm and seriousness of purpose was invaluable in attracting many of the outstanding presidents and board members of the Association.Ā  Roger while a close follower of events in the Cuban economy preferred to direct his research to conceptual issues.Ā  For example, he wrote papers on the distribution and transition processes that were broadly applicable to transition economies. Roger participated in every one of the annual meetings of ASCE in 1991-2022 as commentator, presenter or chairing panels. Roger kept his keen interest on ASCE as he actively worked this year with the nominating committee.Ā  He remained active as well in many other projects.Ā  His sharp mind, for example, focused on comparative statistical analysis of the COVID pandemic gauging results of public health policies across developed and developing countries.Ā  In the last year Roger was working on a new book on economic development which applied his unique knowledge and research on production, distribution and institutional development. Roger will be missed greatly by his friends and colleagues in ASCE.Ā  I offer deep condolences to Alicia, Roger Alberto, Juan Luis and grandchildren for the loss of a loving husband, father and grandfather. Luis R. Luis April 12, 2024

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